Gold After the August 2026 Rebound
A neutral late-August gold view: official-sector and ETF demand have improved, but high real yields and a tactical rebound limit near-term asymmetry.
By SriCommoditiesPrecious Metals5 min read
Founded and principally authored by Srinivas Medida
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Sri's live directional views with stated horizons and concise rationales. Each is revised when the underlying evidence or invalidation conditions change.
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| Market | View | Horizon | Rationale | Related research |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y–2Y Spread | Bullish | 3–6 months | A +47bp reference spread leaves room to steepen if the Fed delivers less tightening than the front end prices while borrowing needs and term premium keep the 10-year yield elevated. | Read research |
| Gold | Neutral | 3–6 months | Q2 central-bank demand and renewed ETF inflows support the structural case, but a 2.34% US 10-year real yield and a tactical August rebound leave limited near-term asymmetry. | Read research |
| Brent Crude | Mildly Bearish | 6–12 months | A projected late-year return to surplus still points lower over time, but renewed Hormuz disruption, a 1.8 mb/d 3Q deficit and July stock draws weaken the near-term short case. | Read research |
| Copper | Neutral | 3–6 months | A day-delayed LME price near $14,350/t and official forecasts for small refined surpluses argue against chasing the rally, while concentrate tightness and long-run power demand prevent a clean bearish view. | Read research |
Contributor Research is excluded from this table and the Decision Log. These are research views, not portfolio recommendations.
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A neutral copper view reaffirmed in late August: prices remain near record levels while the latest official refined-balance forecast points to modest surpluses.
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About SM Research
Research that can be challenged, reproduced and reviewed.
SM Research is an independent, student-led investment-research publication founded by Sri. His research remains the flagship body of work, with explicit assumptions, catalysts, invalidation conditions and a retained decision record.
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