Founder research accountability
Decision Log
Every view in Sri's research archive remains visible after its horizon has passed. This page records what the thesis argued, how it resolved and where the reasoning or implementation failed. Contributor Research is excluded; the classifications are not “audited portfolio returns”.
- Published views
- 17
- Resolved reviews
- 12
- Open views
- 5
| Market | Published | View | Outcome | Assessment | Open research |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread | Bullish | Open | Live curve view: prefer a DV01-neutral 2s10s steepener at a +47bp reference spread to outright duration while front-end policy and long-end fiscal risks diverge. | Read | |
| Gold | Neutral | Open | Live neutral view: official and ETF demand are supportive, but real yields remain high and the August rebound is not yet broad enough to justify a fresh long. | Read | |
| Brent crude | Bearish | Open | Open but weakened: August stock draws and Hormuz disruption delayed the bearish catalyst; a projected late-year surplus supports only a mildly bearish 6–12 month view. | Read | |
| LME copper | Neutral | Open | Neutral view maintained: copper returned near its highs while official 2026–27 refined-balance forecasts and high valuation limited near-term asymmetry. | Read | |
| Gold | Bullish | Unsuccessful | The revised target was not reached and the real-yield invalidation was later breached. | Read | |
| LME aluminium | Bullish | Successful | The $3,450–3,600 target was reached within the stated horizon, helped by a geopolitical supply shock. | Read | |
| Gold | Bullish | Unsuccessful | The $6,000 target was missed and the real-yield invalidation was triggered, despite resilient structural demand. | Read | |
| LME nickel | Bullish | Unsuccessful | The expected move to $18,500–20,000 was not sustained and the market fell below the entry range. | Read | |
| LME aluminium | Bullish | Successful | The $2,950–3,050 target was reached within roughly ten weeks. | Read | |
| Arabica coffee | Bullish | Unsuccessful | The target was not reached; low visible stocks amplified weather risk but did not predict a bullish weather outcome. | Read | |
| Live cattle | Bullish | Mixed | The continuous nearby market exceeded the target, but the specifically named contracts expired before the move. | Read | |
| Uranium | Bullish | Open | The structural fuel-cycle thesis remains plausible, but higher US inventories and an unspecified target benchmark keep the view open rather than promoted. | Read | |
| LME nickel | Bearish | Unsuccessful | Nickel repriced above the expected range as Indonesian policy and cost-floor expectations dominated the surplus. | Read | |
| Brent crude | Bearish | Unsuccessful | The physical surplus thesis did not deliver the required price move before the futures horizon ended. | Read | |
| Henry Hub natural gas | Bullish | Successful | The $4.50–5.00 target was reached about one month after publication; exit discipline was the main process lesson. | Read | |
| LME zinc / SHFE zinc | — | Successful | The implemented LME short worked over the intended horizon, although the unexecuted SHFE hedge meant the trade was not true relative value. | Read | |
| Sika, Clean Harbors and uranium | Bullish | Mixed | Clean Harbors validated strongly, Sika partially validated and the uranium thesis remained open; the original work lacked explicit entry and invalidation levels. | Read |
“Mixed” is used where the research direction and implementation diverged, or where a multi-idea report produced different outcomes. Open views remain subject to revision as new evidence arrives.